One of the biggest misconceptions about professional gamblers is that they are all top-notch handicappers. They aren’t. But they do one thing far better than the average bettor. They know how to shop for lines.
Getting the best available nfl betting lines can often make the difference between a winning season and a losing one. Those who bet for a living are quick to acknowledge that fact. If you want to see the value in shopping for lines, look no farther than the NFL futures market for odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl.
A number of smart bettors will typically avoid placing futures bets, as the house typically has an estimated 30- to 50-percent advantage over bettors. But for those willing to shop for the best odds, those percentages can be drastically reduced.
What we’ll do here is look at the odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl from four we–known sportsbooks - Bodog, Intertops and Sportsbook.com.
More on NFL Betting…
The betting line for the New York Giants-New England Patriots Super Bowl has dropped to as low as New England -11.5 at some offshore sportsbooks, thought the Vegas odds are generally higher than the sharper offshore line. The total is pretty steady at 53.5, though Vegas has it posted at 54 and many casinos.
The 11.5 is a very significant drop from several sportsbooks that had the line as high as 14. Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com says while he has not made up his mind on the game, early Giants money is not necessarily based on sound logic.
“Truthfully, my sports service never makes picks based on hunches. We still have a lot of techniques to run, so honestly I can neither agree nor disagree with any bets.” But he has spoken to Giants bettors who have already invested a lot of money and Godsey says they are using convoluted logic.
An example is betting the Giants because they have won a record 10 straight road games. “It’s a common blunder the square player makes in handicapping March Madness or the college bowls. Neutral games are just that—neutral. A team’s road statistics are not more relevant than their home numbers.”
Also he says, gamblers develop a fear of betting on or against certain teams if they’ve been burnt recently. “It’s rare when in a Super Bowl one team is entering on a spread slump. But Joey Bagofdonuts is afraid to bet with the Patriots who are winless against the spread in the playoffs or against the Giants who are undefeated in the postseason.”
Godsey says bettors have the attitude that they’ve been burned betting against the Giants or on the Patriots, so they won’t make the same mistake again.¼br> ¼br> source: http://www.offshoreinsiders.com/index.php?Page=Articles&ArticleID=1173
